Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
The President Donald Trump vs. Governor Ron DeSantis split in the Florida GOP rages on, and it’s the president’s side that continue to prevail, with the Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) scoring a double-digit lead over the governor’s wife, Casey DeSantis, in a hypothetical 2026 matchup in an internal poll.
Donalds, who represents a district encompassing a large part of Southwest Florida including Fort Myers and Naples, has been a staunch Trump supporter. His loyalty has been rewarded by the president, scoring a prime seating location during the 2024 Republican National Convention right next to Trump and his family, as pictured above.
Last month, Trump officially made the announcement that many expected was coming, posting on his Truth Social account that Donalds had his “Complete and Total Endorsement,” even though the congressman did not officially launch his campaign until a few days later.
DeSantis took a verbal swing at Donalds after the endorsement, bashing the congressman for being “in other states campaigning” and not deserving any credit for the “victories” in Florida. It should perhaps be noted that Donalds’ time in other states was campaigning for Trump — Donalds was one of his most active surrogates — and DeSantis’ sniping came after the governor’s reported outreach efforts to get Trump to endorse Casey DeSantis or at least keep his powder dry a bit longer were unsuccessful.
And, of course, this is all after Trump trounced DeSantis in the presidential primary, DeSantis balked at nominating Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump to the Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio, and DeSantis was among the GOP governors exiled to an overflow room for TRump’s inauguration while the tech billionaires got front row seats. DeSantis may have comfortably won his re-election bid in 2022, but for Florida Republican primary voters, Trump is still the north star.
That’s what MAGA pollster Tony Fabrizio says the poll his company, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, conducted found. Fabrizio was Trump’s pollster for his successful 2016 campaign and advised a Trump SuperPAC for the 2024 election cycle.
According to a report by Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner, the Fabrizio poll showed Trump’s endorsement helped Donalds wallop Casey DeSantis by double digits, even though Florida’s First Lady had a significantly higher level of name recognition.
The poll was conducted on Feb. 26 and 27 among 600 likely GOP primary voters across the state and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.
As a general question, when pollsters asked GOP voters who they preferred for governor, 34% said Donalds, 30% said Casey DeSantis, and 3% said Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is reportedly mulling throwing his hat in the ring. The remaining 33% were undecided, not surprising this early in the campaign — but other numbers from the poll show Donalds with several advantages over the governor’s wife.
Casey DeSantis had a clear name recognition advantage, with 86% percent of respondents recognizing her and 65% saying they knew who Donalds was, but Trump’s endorsement had a seismic effect. From Scheckner’s report:
But when pollsters informed voters that Trump had endorsed Donalds for Governor, Donalds’ lead over DeSantis grew to 22 points, 45% to 23% — a nearly 2-to-1 edge. And there’s a lot of room to grow; currently, less than half of Republican Primary voters know Trump has endorsed the race, and Donalds hasn’t yet advertised the President’s support.
Naturally, Casey DeSantis has the full backing of her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis. But it’s not nearly as impactful as the President’s, the poll found. When respondents were told that Ron DeSantis endorsed Casey DeSantis without first hearing about Trump’s endorsement of Donalds, the First Lady’s standing in the race jumped to 35% support, 2 points more than Donalds.
However, when voters knew of both endorsements, 38% of respondents said they preferred Donalds, compared to 28% who said they were siding with DeSantis. Five percent said they would instead cast ballots for Simpson, a 2-point bump, while 29% remained undecided.
Fabrizio took the opportunity to lob some bombs at the governor, issuing a statement mocking Casey DeSantis’ hypothetical campaign as doomed to stumble as her husband’s presidential campaign had. “Much like the DeSantises’ fool’s errand in 2024 against President Trump where he got crushed, this data shows that the DeSantises would suffer a similar fate in Florida if Casey should run for Governor,” he said. “The only real questions are: Will they betray President Trump again? And how many Tallahassee fools will follow them off the cliff a second time to do so?”
Donalds’ fundraising is off to a solid start, transferring $1.2 million from his congressional account and doubling that with new donations, according to Florida Politics reporter Jacob Ogles. Trump will also host a fundraiser for Donalds at Mar-a-Lago on May 1, with tickets to the general reception going for a minimum of $3,000 and a seat at dinner going for $50,000 per plate.
Other Floridians rumored to be considering entering the gubernatorial contest include former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), and on the Democratic side, former Rep. Gwen Graham (daughter of the late Bob Graham, who served as both Florida’s Governor and Senator), Florida Senate Democratic Leader Jason Pizzo, Florida State Sen. Shevrin Jones, Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon, and Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava.