Two members of Arkansas’ Congressional delegation are not concerned about the future of a foreign pilot training center in Fort Smith, even with U.S.-NATO relations in new and uncertain territory, and the DOGE team pushing for deep defense department cuts.
Under a normal political environment, a question about the future of the nascent training center at Ebbing Air National Guard Base in Fort Smith might not be asked, but the past few weeks – replete with domestic and international headlines that often change the narrative by the hour – have proven that nothing is off the table.
Ebbing, home to the 188th Wing in Fort Smith and co-located with the Fort Smith Regional Airport, was selected in March 2023 by the U.S. Air Force to be the long-term pilot training center supporting F-16 and F-35 fighter planes purchased by Singapore, Switzerland, Poland, Germany, Finland and other countries participating in the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program.
The 85th Fighter Group and the 57th Fighter Squadron, both under the Eglin, Fla.-based 33rd Fighter Wing, are based at Ebbing and are responsible for training F-35 pilots from numerous NATO countries and the Republic of Singapore. Significant construction on permanent facilities is expected to begin in mid-2025. Two F-35 fighter jets purchased by Poland arrived in Fort Smith in late December and are the first of many from several countries expected to be based at Ebbing.
U.S. Sen. John Boozman, R-Ark., and U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Rogers, issued the following joint statement when separately asked about the rise in concern about future U.S. relations with NATO countries, the rising cost of the F-35 program, and the potential impact on the pilot training center.
“The F-35 pilot training center is a historic investment in the Fort Smith community and our state, but it also represents a tremendous commitment to strengthening national security. Our congressional delegation worked aggressively and seamlessly to secure Ebbing’s selection as the new home for this important program and we are confident about hosting the allies and partners anticipated from the outset. It is reassuring to see more NATO members increasing their defense spending while trusting America’s defense industries to help meet their security needs and the U.S. military’s unrivaled ability to train their forces.”
Tim Allen, president and CEO of the Fort Smith Regional Chamber of Commerce, works directly with representatives of the foreign nations. He said no one has yet raised concerns about the center’s future.
“I’m not seeing anything that would change that mission there,” Allen said.
‘QUELL THE SPECULATION’
David Olive, chief of staff for Asa Hutchinson when he was first elected in 1996 as the U.S. House for Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District, and founder of Washington, D.C.-based Catalyst Partners, said actions by the Trump Administration have created broad uncertainty in Arkansas.
“If there is one word that permeates Washington these days it is ‘uncertainty,’” Olive said after President Trump’s March 5 joint address to Congress. “The President’s congressional address and Senator Slotkin’s response last night did not change that perception. The concerns about what ‘might happen’ to existing programs, people, procurements and policies is leading to rampant speculation about ‘worst case’ scenarios. Federally-connected activity in Arkansas is not exempt from this speculation since it affects planned agricultural, academic, infrastructure, and military activity in the state.”
Olive was optimistic about the future of the pilot training center, noting that “no other place” in the world will have the type of F-35 training that is available at Ebbing. However, he said elected officials representing Arkansas should lobby the Trump administration to end or minimize uncertainty.
“It is my hope that the Arkansas Congressional delegation, supported by the active intervention of Governor Sanders, will bring the power of their direct connections to the Trump administration in order to lessen that uncertainty and provide answers to quell the speculation,” Olive said.
‘NO LONGER CERTAIN’
Germany, a leading country in the 32-member NATO, has been part of many recent headlines suggesting a push for independence from U.S. support following President Trump’s remaking of U.S. involvement with Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in early 2022.
Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said the European Union (EU) and NATO should begin to move “as quickly as possible” to “achieve independence from the USA.” According to Breaking Defense, the F-35 sales to Germany are no longer certain because of America’s apparent change in attitude toward Ukraine and the broader security of Europe.
“I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump’s remarks last week… it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Merz said Feb. 24. “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”
‘NO OTHER OPTION’
Other published reports suggest one of the likely results of a diminished or broken NATO would be the end of the F-35 program. NATO nations aren’t sure about investing in a platform that is already borderline prohibitively expensive with which they might not be able to obtain parts or software service.
“The most significant existing contract in which there may be buyer’s remorse and an attempt to go a different direction is the German commitment to (the) F-35,” JJ Gertler, a senior analyst at the Teal Group, told Breaking Defense.
That sentiment is shared by Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, a consultancy firm.
“The most survivable US export programs are the ones that need the least care and feeding from the US, and can be sustained with in-country resources. The F-35 is incredibly dependent on a constant stream of upgrades and parts,” Aboulafia noted in the Breaking Defense report.
However, Jim Townsend, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said the F-35 order is “safe,” largely because Germany has “no other option” but to acquire the aircraft to replace older aviation platforms. And just recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte chastised reporters who questioned the future of the U.S.-NATO relationship following the U.S. policy shift with Ukraine.
“Let’s please stop gossiping about what the U.S. might or might not do,” Rutte said.
NEW FIGHTER, BUDGET ISSUES
Reports also note that EU and NATO countries are developing a sixth generation fighter that better fits with a “continental combined forces command.” The countries already have aviation weapons systems to which they can pivot if F-35 sales are interrupted or halted.
“If the United States pulls out of NATO, it is also equally likely that the buyers for American arms will dry up. Europe is already developing a sixth-generation fighter aircraft, so we can expect any F-35 orders to be canceled. The same goes for many of the land-based systems,” noted this report from Modern Diplomacy.
The F-35 also may have domestic problems. Elon Musk, who is leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) effort, has said the F-35 is “obsolete” and a “shit design.”
“The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people. This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes. And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed,” Musk noted in a post on X.
Ongoing discussions about deep defense spending cuts pursued by DOGE also make the F-35 program vulnerable. Additionally, reports from the Government Accounting Office (GAO) suggest the F-35 costs have ballooned to the point where the military may purchase less of the platform, and even fly them less to reduce operational costs.